Economic Note 28/2024 by T. Ferraresi, L. Ghezzi e D. Marinari
In an international macroeconomic context marked by lights and shadows, the reading of the dynamics of the Tuscan production system during the first part of 2024 is still affected by opposing pushes. On the one hand, the recent return of inflation within the targets set by the major central banks has favored a policy of lowering interest rates, which has enlivened international demand. On the other hand, the previous surge in prices with the restrictive intonation of monetary policy has left a heavy legacy in the spending capacity of households, limiting their consumption.
What emerges for the regional production system is a picture in which lights still alternate with shadows. Industrial production, as a whole, continued to fall in the second quarter of 2024, in line with the figure recorded at the national level and reflecting the crisis in the fashion industry. Exports, however, accelerated, driven by the dynamics of a few, highly concentrated, productions, pharmaceuticals and machinery above all. Two specializations, not surprisingly, whose cyclicality appears unrelated to that which characterizes the more traditional consumer goods produced by the Tuscan economy.
In the labor market, a drop in demand is observed with the decrease in starts being mainly related to the decline in hiring in manufacturing and accommodation and food services. In manufacturing, the continued, and worsening, difficulties in fashion-related sectors weighed heavily, while in accommodation and food services the adverse weather conditions in May delayed the start of the tourist season.
In the second quarter of 2024, despite the reduction in demand, the dynamics of employees still shows a positive change, compared to the same period of the previous year, and the average number of employees exceeds the value of 2023 by 34 thousand, +2.6%. However, the dynamic appears to be slowing down from +3.2 percent in the third quarter of 2023 to +2.6 percent now. In the manufacturing sectors, negative changes are observed, even quite significant ones, as in the case of the tanning and footwear industries. A further sign of the unfavorable economic situation for the manufacturing sector is the significant increase in the number of workers receiving social safety nets.
